Rijnland boezem study

Introduction

How does climate change alter the probability of high water levels? For Rijnland Water Board, HydroLogic developed a new boezem model and a water level statistics tool that were used to make the effects of the KNMI’23 climate scenarios on the boezem system clear.

  • Duration: 2024–2025
  • Client: Rijnland Water Board
  • Keywords: climate change, water safety, boezem system, water level statistics
  • Models & Tools: D-HYDRO, D-HyDAMO, Python scripting, Water level tool

Background

Need for insight

The water system of Rijnland is under pressure from climate change. New insights from the KNMI’23 climate scenarios, improved precipitation statistics and the availability of more modern modelling techniques prompted a renewed investigation into how the boezem system responds to extreme rainfall. Rijnland wishes to have up-to-date water level statistics and a future-proof model to better map out water nuisance, water safety issues and possible bottlenecks.

Method

Flood models

HydroLogic developed a new D-HYDRO model of Rijnland’s boezem system in close collaboration with the water board. The model covers both the boezem waters and the draining polders, including (the control of) pumping stations, weirs, bridges, culverts and peak storage. For reproducibility and efficiency, the model was largely built automatically using D-HyDAMO and additional Python scripts.

After calibration and validation on historical rainfall events, extensive stochastic calculations were carried out. These included, among other things, different climate scenarios, rainfall patterns, pumping station failures and the probability of high external water levels. By clustering stochasts smartly, we were able to reduce the number of simulations while maintaining the quality and reliability of the results. The results have been made available in an interactive water level statistics tool, with which Rijnland can itself analyse and compare climate scenarios and the effects of stochasts.

The result

Reliable information

The project has resulted in an up-to-date and robust boezem model that has made the consequences of climate change for water levels within Rijnland clear. The study not only delivers new water level statistics, but also insight into the factors that determine high water levels. With the delivered water level statistics tool, Rijnland has a powerful instrument to analyse future risks and to substantiate measures for a climate-resilient water system.

What did the project deliver?

  • Rijnland’s management area of approx. 1,100 km² mapped through modelling
  • Water discharge of approximately 200 polders calculated
  • More than 1,350 model areas schematised
  • More than 1,000 model runs calculated at lightning speed in the cloud
  • With the water level statistics tool, statistics up to T=1,000 years can easily be derived
“By making smart use of advanced models, extensive automation and close collaboration with the water board, we have made the effects of climate change on Rijnland’s water system clear in a fast and reliable way.”
Ludo Diender | Project lead